The stupidity of mathematical predictions...

The world will hit a population of 9 billion from its current 6.5 Billion in 2050. This will largely be an older population which coupled with widespread environmental degradation will cause immense hardships in 2050.

Now this statement is absolutely factually correct but still stupid. It assumes that the world will suddenly wake up to this problem in 2050 and the issues will all come to roost in that year. The changes propsed in the piece are not going to be true one fine morning - they will instead build up from 2009 - 2050. And the homo sapiens will adapt to it and influence it in ways which may render the predictions completely false. This fact is completely ignored in predictions such as this one - which are mathematically built without considering the changes which would happen as a gradual build up of the facts being predicted in the INTERVENING period. And thats why they are stupid - they ignore the intervening period. And that is why all dire predictions made in the past about our today too have never come true.

Smaller Banks, Local Connect...

Reading through an article in the Economist which talks about how local, smaller, geographically spread banks serve populations better than large conglomerated banks -

"Governments in low-income countries should recognise the strategic importance of small, private domestic banks. They should also carry out some fundamental reforms. On the demand side of the equation, entrepreneurs in developing economies need to be able to signal more easily that they are creditworthy. Sustained efforts to improve credit and collateral registries offer large pay-offs. Credit registries enable first-time entrepreneurs to document their personal credit histories and share them with lenders. Collateral registries enable lenders to verify that assets such as property and vehicles have not already been pledged by the borrower to secure past loans. Transparent and efficient court procedures allow lenders to seize collateral in the event of loan defaults. "

Really vouch for the second item on the list. Being able to show your credit worthiness is such an important part of the whole equation for that small farmer in rayalseema...What the article seems to miss is the whole online nature of banking transactions these days as it cites historical examples to support these points. But then again the spread and degree of comfort with online/mobile banking are entirely different matters where again the authors theory would stand ground...

Story-Link-http://www.economist.com/businessfinance/displaystory.cfm?story_id=13986299

Rein in the banks...Link Capital requirement norms to size of their books...

Well, the subject pretty much says everything I want to say in this article. Short point, as we seek the global recovery, need to have higher capital requirment norms for the banks. My humble suggestion would be to link the %age required to the size of the bank..i.e 4% if the size of your books is $1 Billion - 8% if its between $1 billion to $2 billion, 12% beyond $2 Billion etc... What say?

Delhi Metro...Looking Good

Its looking good...

Line Scheduled time of opening Total Length

Line 1 - Dilshad Garden Extension June 2008 25.15

Line 2 - Jahangirpuri Extension Jan 2009

Line 2 - Gurgaon Extension Jan 2010 44.65

Line 2 - Qutub Minar Extension Jul 2010

Line 3 - Noida Sec21 Extension Jul 2009

Line 3 - Dwarka Sector 21 Extension Dec 2009 53.43

New Lines:

Line 4 - Yamuna Bank-Anand Vihar ISBT Sept 2009 8.74

Line 5 - Inderlok-Mundka June 2010 18.46

Line 6 - Central Secretariat-Badarpur border Sept 2010 20.04

Airport Express line Aug 2010 22.40

(IGI Airport - New Delhi Railway Station)

Total = 192.87 kms

Boy...little is now left uncovered....

Tourism

I had written an article quite some time back on the growth potential of Indian tourism - http://suvidblog.blogspot.com/2007/08/why-indias-tourism-traffic-will-plateau.html. And then came across another piece today - http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/News/News-By-Industry/Holiday-traffic-expected-to-fall-30/articleshow/4363913.cms. And am saddened that tourism's luck has finally run out. Would agree that most of it could also be driven by 26/11 and the global recession (Stay-cation guys!) but there was always minimal headroom for tourism to grow in India and dont see the growth of yester years repeated moving on...

Welcome to 2009 - I see a good year...

Well good for India really...and thank the elections for this. Its the year when the black economy returns to become white...All the accumulations in the hands of politicians and parties get handed out across the country to the poorest of the poor - Direct cash in the hands of the people - The most efficient PDS scheme in the world!! And this money then would stand invested, consumed and saved....Yippee!!! All companies focusing on rural would stand to gain. Aint the dance of democracy interesting?

BRIC is now IC...

Well finally the demographic dividend has come back to aid the India growth story - The only two economies which continue to grow are India & China...Both Brazil and Russia continuing to languish and I am told that the old days of barter are back in Moscow...Hmmm...